Just days left in the regular season and still the playoff picture is far from clear. The only certainties are the top two seeds in the East (1. Cleveland, 2. Orlando) and the top seed in the West (Los Angeles).
The Heat are likely going to get the five or six seed, with a very outside chance at the seven seed if all hell breaks loose.
The Heat have a gift of a schedule to play out with games at New York and at Philadelphia before hosting the pitiful New Jersey Nets to close out the season.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland 61-20
2. Orlando 57-23
3. Atlanta 51-29 * (Tie-breaker over Atlanta)
4. Boston 50-30
5. Milwaukee 45-35 * (Tie-breaker over Miami)
6. Miami 44-35
7. Charlotte 43-37 *(Tie-breaker over Miami)
8. Toronto 38-41 *(Tie-breaker over Chicago)
Chicago 38-41
Let’s assume they win at least two of the final three which guarantees them a four or five seed, meaning a meeting against Boston or Atlanta in round one. Who would they rather face?
Is this Johnson's final run as a Hawk?
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks collectively guard Dwyane Wade as good as anyone. In four games this year they held him to 43% shooting and have the length and athleticism to keep him from getting to his spots.
The Heat don’t have a chance against anyone unless Wade is able to get into the lane and draw attention from multiple defenders.
The Hawks added a big time scorer in the offseason in Jamal Crawford (18.0 PPG).
When he’s on, the Hawks have the look of a contender. However, when he’s off he can shoot this team out of the playoffs. He has a little Iverson in him concerning the latter.
Miami is a different team entirely than the one Atlanta beat in seven last year. They actually have an identity this year as one of the NBA’s elite defensive teams.
They are second in defensive FG% at 43.9 a and fifth in defensive efficiency. Offensively they still have their inconsistencies, starting with Michael Beasley’s erratic play. I’d be feeling much better about this team if he got his act together by now.
It might not be an easy matchup, but it would make a much more interesting series than last year in which every game was a blow out. Meanwhile it went to game seven which made it all the more bizarre.
One thing the Heat would have going for them against Atlanta is the revenge factor. Most of these Heat players were there for the beat down in Atlanta last year and the thought of it happening twice in a row should be nauseating.
Boston Celtics
Meet the new Celt's mascot
Only skeletons remain from the 2008 championship team. ‘The Big Three” has aged faster than Mickey Rourke.
Ray Allen is pretty much a stand-and-catch shooter at this point in his career and he’s in the best condition of the three. Kevin Garnett’s body is falling apart and should be modeled for the board game Operation any day now.
Paul Pierce is shooting well but has faced nagging injuries all season.
How far they can go in the playoffs is no longer based on any of their three future hall of famers or designated team fatty Rasheed Wallace. Rondo is the only one who can take over a game at both ends of the floor.
He is a matchup nightmare for Miami because Carlos Arroyo doesn’t have the foot speed to stay in front of him, meaning Mario Chalmers will have to get more minutes.
It’s just too bad you can’t combine Chalmers quick feet with Arroyo’s basketball smarts.
Boston is the better matchup for Miami, but by no means a safe bet. They are deep, and although they are old, they still have a few gallons left in the tank for one more playoff run.
Orlando Magic
Miami, please don’t blow the final three games so you can get pummeled by Orlando, pretty please. Dwight Howard would run circles around poor Jermaine O’Neal. This series would be absolute torture.
Miami and Milwaukee are both tied for the fifth spot with the Bucks holding the tie breaker.
The good news? Milwaukee’s final three games are against Atlanta and then Boston twice and their cornerstone inside, Andrew Bogut, is on the shelf. If you haven’t witnessed his elbow being turned inside out yet, check it out below.
That video might set the record for most “OH MY GODs” or “UGHS”. Moving along, Miami has a legitimate chance to win out.
Remaining schedule:
Fri: Detroit
Sun: @New York
Mon: @Philadelphia
Wed: New Jersey
We know the Heat will be playing into late April. The question is will they escape round one? The key to me is not Dwyane Wade. He is going to get his. It’s Michael Beasley and Jermaine O’Neal.
Beasley has to play more consistent or he won’t play in the playoffs.
With O’Neal it’s the same old thing, injuries. The great thing about the playoffs is that one round takes about a month so he should be fresh. He has to hit his stride by the playoffs for the Heat to have an effective inside-out combo.
One thing is for certain: this year’s playoffs is potentially going to be epic. In the Western Conference seven teams are within three games of each other. Amazing.
1. Is Lebron finally going to transform into a killer?
Kobe Bryant? Killer. Michael Jordan? The most ruthless killer of them all. A killer is the player who at some point of a game will do anything and everything to keep his team from losing. A killer hates losing more than he likes winning.
Lebron right now is like Batman. He’s unstoppable, fearless, and always in control, but he can’t quite send the enemy to their eternal resting place. Something tells me Lebron is going to go video game mode in the playoffs this year and explode for routine 40 point games, a la MJ.
2. Can Kevin Durant lead the youngin’ Thunder out of the first round?
Oklahoma City has the makings of a powerhouse. They have an outstanding core. First there’s the dynamic young point guard in Russell Westbrook, who goes from 0 to 60 like a ferrari. Then there’s the versatile Jeff Green who is pretty good at just about everything. Throw in Kevin Durant, who is already a top six player in this league at just 21. Can Durant overcome the Thunder’s youth and lack of depth come playoff time?
3. Is this year’s version of the Lakers better suited for the playoffs?
Well they’re starting point guard is probably a grandfather and his backup’s best skill is leaping. Phil, we have a problem. But in the playoffs, the game changes. It slows down, becomes much more physical, and defensive intensity is maximized. Sounds perfect for Ron Artest, no? Kobe can handle point duties anyway if Fisher and Farmar struggle. Can you imagine a lineup of Kobe, Artest, Odom, Gasol, and Bynum? Every guy is 6′6″ or taller. Tell me that lineup wouldn’t shred the West up and I’ll tell you you are baked.
4. Will Stan Van Gundy finally unleash the true Dwight Howard?
When Dwight scores 25 or more the Magic are 12-3 and when he doesn’t they’re 42-20. They win 80% of the time when he goes over that mark and it drops to 67% of the time when he doesn’t. Sounds simple to me. When you have a wolf like Dwight, you need to feed him. No center in basketball truly matches up with Howard one on one. Turn the guy loose and watch the enemy pay.
5. Can the grand daddy Spurs win it one more time?
The good: They’ve won six of their last seven including wins against Cleveland and Orlando at home and against L.A. and Boston on the road. Tony Parker has been cleared and his prodigy, George Hill, is looking like the real deal. They also have to be salivating at the thought of slower paced playoff basketball because let’s face it, these boys have some miles.
The Bad: The Spurs are more tender than a filet and one more injury to “the big three” will kill this team’s chances.
As long as they don’t get L.A. in round one they should advance. They need time to adjust with Parker’s return to truly make a deep run and have to do it before they get L.A.
Go all the way back to February 2007. The Diesel was still in Miami as the Heat were looking to defend their title. That was the last time Miami has had this many wins in a row.
Last night’s convincing 97-84 win over Minnesota marks their eighth consecutive win, a current NBA best. They can match their 9-game streak from ‘07 when they host Philadelphia Wednesday night. Dwyane Wade has exploded the past two games posting 43 and 39 at Indiana and Minnesota, respectively.
Above all, the Heat are doing big things on the defensive end. Their defensive efficiency on the season is 4th in the NBA. It’s a measure of points given up per 100 possessions.
It is a more significant stat than opponent points scored because it takes pace into account. If you play at a high pace you are naturally going to give up more points and vice versa.
The Heat are taking out teams by an average of 12.5 points during their 8 game streak. Yes, their opponents haven’t been the creme of the crop, but we can look past that for two reasons.
First, their scoring margin is off the charts and second they’re doing it without Jermaine O’Neal, who has been out all but two of the eight wins.
With Milwaulkee’s Andrew Bogut going down hard last night and the fact that the Heat have a cupcake schedule down the stretch, I’d be absolutely shocked if they didn’t lock up the 5 seed.
After last night’s embarrassing 1 of 10 performance one begins to wonder whether Michael Beasley is in Miami’s future plans. I don’t just mean for the playoffs, but for next year and beyond. With so many star free agents hitting the market, sign and trade scenarios will certainly be discussed and Beasley’s name will be among them.
With Beasley’s lackluster play he’s making it pretty easy for GM Pat Riley to write him off.
Udonis Haslem was dominant as Beasley’s replacement shooting 10-of-11 in the Heat’s comeback win over the Raptors, including a perfect 5-of-5 in the final period.
Beasley is on the court for one reason, his offense. If he’s not scoring there is no need for him to ever remove his multi-million dollar butt from the bench.
Inconsistency has plagued the 21-year-old in his first two years in the league.
When the playoffs begin in a few weeks the rotation typically shortens to eight, maybe nine guys.
Starters’ minutes sky rocket and defensive intensity is a much bigger focus than during the regular season.
The Heat’s recent surge is putting them in excellent position towards overtaking the fifth spot in the East, which would all but guarantee them a matchup with the Celtics or Hawks come playoff time. It’s no great consolation prize, but since it means avoiding the Cavs or Magic I’ll take it.
After taking out the surprisingly good Bucks Friday night, Miami has won four in a row while putting together an impressive 10-3 record in March. The schedule continues to get easier too. After a home matchup with the struggling Toronto Raptors on Sunday, they close out their final eight games against lottery bound teams.
As if that’s not enough, their final game might have huge playoff implications and sure enough they will face one of the worst teams in NBA history in the New Jersey Nets at home.
Milwaukee’s strong hold on the fifth seed has quickly weakened with Miami now just one game back in the standings. The Bucks also don’t have nearly as easy of a schedule as the Heat. Six their last eleven are against playoff teams including a brutal three game stretch to end the season with Atlanta once and Boston twice.
Miami has essentially been handed the fifth spot on a platter as long as they don’t experience a monumental meltdown over the next couple weeks.
I want Atlanta in round one. I could care less if the Boston dinosaurs are an easier matchup. There’s still a sour taste in my mouth from last year when the incredibly athletic Hawks dismantled Miami in seven games.
I want revenge. Miami is not the same team as last year. Wade is the same guy sure, but Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley are much more experienced. Carlos Arroyo has settled in at the point. Jermaine O’Neal is finally somewhat healthy while playing at a high level and guys like Dorell Wright and Quentin Richardson are proving to be vital role players.
There is nothing better than NBA playoff basketball and although Miami clearly is a few notches below the Eastern powers, I would not want to face Wade and crew come April.
Check out what Wade had to say after the huge win in Milwaulkee last night.
Who are the most overlooked guys in the league? I’m talking about the players who aren’t touted as ’star’ caliber, yet have immense value. These guys don’t have to produce sensational statistics.
They could be young guys on the rise who haven’t quite made it yet or veteran players who don’t get their due. Here are the NBA’s most underrated.
Chauncey Billups – People will call me crazy when I say he’s been one of the best point guards of the past decade. I have two reasons. No point guard in the league D’s up like Chauncey and hits as many clutch shots outside Nash. He’s a winner. Just look at how much better Denver became when they shipped out Iverson for Billups a couple years ago.
Dejuan Blair – He was the most dominant big man on the college level last year and yet still dropped to 37th overall. He overpowered the draft’s third overall pick in Hasheem Thabeet in their college match-ups so badly that at one point I thought Thabeet might cry. The ACL-less Blair in 18 minutes a night is averaging 7.7 points and 6.0 rebounds for the Spurs (If you double those minutes to starters minutes he’s averaging 15 and 12).
John Salmons – How’s this stat line? Since the Milwaukee Bucks acquired Salmons they’ve been 14-2. He’s been their go-to-guy, averaging 20.5 points, 46.7 FG%, and 39.4 3FG%. For his career he averages 9.5 points.
Shane Battier – People point to his 9.8 point career average and say he’s been a bust in the NBA after being the 6th overall pick in 2001 by yes, the Vancouver Grizzlies. The Vancouver era in the NBA is one of those times that people forget ever happened. Anyway, Battier is an elite defender/shooter that should win at least one title before he hangs them up. There is room for a guy like that on any team in NBA because they are so hard to come by.
Kevin Love - Love is quietly having a heck of a season in Minnesota, averaging 14.6 points and 10.7 rebounds while shooting an amazing-for-a-big-man 39% from three.
Anderson Varejao – Some call him dirty; I call him physical. Some call him a flopper; I call him smart. Although his contract might dicate he is not underrated(Signed for 6-years, $50 million last summer), I still don’t think the average fan knows how valuable Varejao is to the Cavs. He guards just as well on the perimeter as he does inside and routinely gets offensive rebounds in crunch time. A big time winner that sacrifices himself for the team.
Wade County – There is no question this is Wade’s city. Gone are the Marinos and Mournings. From a sports perspective Miami is absolutely Wade’s house. Why leave the beautiful weather, girls, and lifestyle?
Loyalty – When Pat Riley took a gamble on a promising, super-athletic kid out of Marquette at #5 overall in the 2003 draft, we had no idea what we were getting. But Riles saw something and the rest was history. Remember when people were clamoring for Chris Kaman before the draft? Can you imagine if Wade was passed up. There might not even be a Miami Heat team right now. The bottom line is Miami has done everything they could to win titles for the last four to five years. In making the Shaq trade the idea was passing up long term success for a championship now. Patience is key.
Dynasty – Really no other team outside of Miami and New York has a chance to do something really special this summer. By special I mean pairing up two of the top ten players in the NBA from a crop of Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade. History tells us if you have two of the top ten you’re a contender right away. The Lakers and Bulls did it for years. Having great role players surrounding the two superstars is obviously critical as well.
The lure of South Beach – Who likes playing in places like Cleveland, Philly, or Minnesota? If you could live in a place where winter doesn’t exist why would you pass it up? If Wade decides immediately after the season he’s staying and then goes into recruiting mode I see a lot of bites. Somebody good wants to come to Miami. Period. Playing with Wade in his prime in Miami? Show me the dotted line.
Miami is 33-32 and barely in control of the 8th seed in the East. They have 27 games remaining, including ten games against teams that will not be in the playoffs. Over the course of the next two weeks they face Chicago twice, as well as Milwaukie and Charlotte once a piece.
They desperately need to move ahead of the seven and eight spots if they want a prayer of escaping the first round. The time is now for Miami to make a move.
And it starts tonight against a severely beat up Chicago Bulls team who might be without their top two players. Every game from here on out needs to be played with playoff intensity.
Dwyane Wade needs to turn into the Superman he was in the 2006 finals and the supporting cast must knock down open shots.
Below is the Heat’s schedule over the next two weeks. Teams highlighted in bold are the teams Miami is battling for playoff position.
Fri 12 vs Chicago 7:30pm
Sun 14 vs Philadelphia 6:00pm
Tue 16 vs San Antonio 7:30pm
Thu 18 vs Orlando 7:00pm Sat 20 vs Charlotte 7:30pm
Mon 22 @ New Jersey 7:30pm Thu 25 @ Chicago 8:00pm Fri 26 @ Milwaukee 8:30pm
Kobe Bryant lit up the Heat with 39 points on 15-28 shooting Thursday night. His jumper was falling and defenders were helpless in trying to even slow him down.
It didn’t matter in the end, however, as the team-first Miami Heat proved victorious in the 114-111 nail biter in a game that they desperately needed.
The difference maker was clearly Quentin Richardson who had a season high 25 points including an unbelievable seven made three pointers.
The Heat played as a team and although Dwyane Wade led the team in scoring yet again with 27 of his own, he contributed a game high 14 assists.
The nationally televised contest had a season league high 31 lead changes and was hands down the most excited game I’ve watched all season.
Miami has finally climbed back to .500 at 31-31 and faces another huge game in Miami Saturday night against the Hawks.
Rob Kelley is a former Sports Reporter for various newspapers throughout Florida, and is now writing out of his home. Kelley published his first book, "I'm Not a Quitter," in 2006. Kelley is also the Florida Marlins Correspondent for the Fanball Sports Network at FishingForABlog.com, as well as the Atlanta Falcons Correspondent at DirtyBirdBlog.com. You can also find more national sports columns by Kelley at BostonSuperBlog.com and can follow him on Facebook, twitter and via email. Kelley is convinced that with the addition of Miami's own trifecta of D-Wade, LeBron & Bosh, there is no team capable of stopping Miami from bringing the Heat to the rest of the NBA!
